Become Commander History: How To Succeed On The Biggest Stage

Welcome to the TopDeck newsletter! With the stage set for the first event of the 2025 TopDeck Championship Series and the biggest event in Commander history, all eyes are on winning the record-breaking Diamond event. Read on for upcoming events, a metagame prediction for The Boil 2 and a guide on how to change the way you think about your matches, from fourth highest ranking ELO player on our ELO leaderboard!

Upcoming Featured Events

Boiling The Brews: Predicting The Metagame For The Boil 2

By Drake Sasser

With the largest event in commander history kicking off in just five days, players have been hard at work trying to break open the new cEDH metagame, and there has never been a bigger reward for doing so. There are plenty of strong but diverging opinions on everything in cEDH now, from the viability of cards, the viability of entire archetypes and the speed of the format. Following this period of discovery kicked off but the sweeping bans of last month, cEDH has seen an intense metagame churn, and the snapshots of the metagame even from week to week have featured the rise of old decks, some of the same old faces we have seen, and some newcomers entirely!

So, how do you sort through this contradictory discourse and data to get an idea of what will show up and what will do well at The Boil 2? The best way I have found is to work through it logically, starting at ground zero.

The Initial Shockwave

Instinctively, right after some of the most potent fast mana in the format is banned, the predominant perception will be that the format has slowed down. This makes sense because at some level it has to have slowed down. The most powerful mana generators are no longer available to anyone across the board, so the format will be slower, even if it is by such a small amount as to be virtually indistinguishable from before.

With that in mind, the logical first places to start testing are, in order, with the decks that were just banned and the decks that were previously deemed to be too slow. We saw this manifest in the first look at the post-ban world provided by Memo last week. Players registered decks like Sisay, Weatherlight Captain, Rograkh + Silas, and Tymna + Kraum in force, all of which were affected heavily by the bans. Additionally, players pulled Magda, Brazen Outlaw, and Tymna + Thrasios off the shelf in high numbers, both of which are decks that were predominantly determined to be slower than other options in the pre-ban world. Given the share of the metagame, each of those decks put up respectable performances and painted a picture of a familiar cEDH metagame as to what we had seen before, with some potentially lesser-seen faces in the top 16 as well. Creature decks seemed to be here to stay, with stock in creatures that make mana over turns such as Birds of Paradise and Magda, Brazen Outlaw among the mix as more appealing ways to generate mana. But this is week 1 data, how trustworthy could it be?

SCGCON DC

While there were plenty of events between BallonCon 3 and SCGCON DC, few contained enough players to really lean on as statistically significant. Naturally, this led to all kinds of different looks across the globe as players tried out new tech, picked up old favorites, or just experimented with straight jank into a new format look. Players looking to win at the highest level, however, had their eyes firmly on SCGCON DC. As the last large event before The Boil 2, the metagame snapshot from the cEDH event in DC is most likely to give the most insight into what players are going to use to prepare.

And what a different look it was! While mono-red strategies had a good showing with the event won by Godo, Bandit Warlord, the top 16 from DC reveals the true threat to keep your eyes on heading into this weekend- RogSi. Of the seven copies registered FIVE of them made the top 16. With an absurd conversion rate of 71.42% the old Rog menace has barely missed a beat from the fast mana bannings. The story told here by the success of these “turbo” decks reveals the format in DC was about winning and winning quickly. Something that both Godo and RogSi are among the best in the format. Despite 3 Magda and 2 Thrasios + Tymna decks registering for the event, only one of those five made the conversion, suggesting players are abandoning the slower brews and the mana creatures for more traditional cEDH fast mana recipes.

Preparing for The Boil 2

Given the progression, if you show up to The Boil 2 uncomfortable with your RogSi matchup, you are more than likely going to have a bad time. The current format has developed to such a point that, even in the absence of Mana Crypt and Dockside, you have to either play Turbo or have a good plan for it. That said, people are still registering new brews and slower decks. Even if those decks struggle to convert within the winner’s metagame, they remain popular options you have to have some game against through some of the early rounds in the event. If your plan is to punch your ticket for The 2025 Topdeck Championship there is a clear deck to beat, and it's spearheaded by one broken kobold.

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Play to Learn, Not Just Win

By Zain Nayer

Most players make a fundamental mistake: they focus on the outcome rather than the process. Winning doesn’t mean you played well, and losing doesn’t mean your strategy was flawed. Each match holds more valuable information than the outcome, but only if you’re disciplined enough to dig for it.

Becoming a great player isn’t just about piling up wins. It’s about honing your ability to make the best possible move, for every game action. The difference between a good player and a great one isn’t accidental; it’s the deliberate choice of the “best” move over the merely “good.” Here’s how you can approach each match with the discipline and precision needed to improve consistently.

1. Reflect Immediately: Capture Your Gut Reactions and Set Goals

Each game is a source of data. Right after a match, capture the standout moments and use them to set focused goals. Did you settle for a “good” play when a “great” one was available? Were you even aware that choice was there? Quick reflections will highlight your tendencies and reveal if you’re unknowingly opting for suboptimal moves.

To leverage these observations, focus on how each choice resonates in later turns. After a game, choose an action and ask, “How did this decision influence the next two turns?” Consider alternative moves and imagine how they might have shifted the game’s outcome. By tracing the ripple effects of your actions, you start to see each decision not as isolated but as a catalyst with potential impacts across multiple turns.

Over time, these reflections and goals create a personal record of where you’re cutting corners—and how you can stop.

2. Challenge Results-Based Thinking

Winning doesn’t mean you played flawlessly, and losing doesn’t mean your strategy was the problem. The mistake most players make is assuming that a result alone tells the story. This results-based thinking keeps you in a comfort zone, blinding you to the real insights within each game.

• Winning isn’t Always Success: After a win, don’t relax. Instead, ask yourself, “Could I have sequenced better? Was I simply lucky?” Pinpoint three moves where your opponent might have disrupted your play. Could you have set up for a line a turn earlier? Look for gaps in your sequence that could have made you vulnerable and note them.

• Losing isn’t Failure: If you lose, isolate the weak points in your strategy. Did you settle for a “good” move when a “great” option existed? Did you give your opponent an opportunity to come back into the game? Replay the match mentally: what other moves were possible, and how might they have altered the match?  Each loss holds a blueprint for improvement, but only if you look beyond the surface.

True growth comes from tearing down the comfortable narratives that results-based thinking builds around your gameplay. Analyze the moves, not just the results.

3. Identify and Correct Common Pitfalls

Be ruthless in identifying common pitfalls. Most players have recurring blind spots—missed triggers, poor sequencing, unnecessary resource use. Don’t settle for vague notions of improvement; attack specific errors with precision.

• Missed Triggers: Small but crucial oversights that drain value and are easy to ignore.

• Sequencing Errors: Did you play each move in its optimal order? Even minor sequencing changes can create significant advantages.

• Resource Management: Were you left stranded without options, or did you hold back unnecessarily? Honing resource management is a core distinction between good and great players.

Turn every match into a case study with a focus on your recurring missteps. After each game, record one type of error, like missed triggers or unnecessary risks. Track these patterns over several games to see if specific habits surface repeatedly, and isolate them as the focal points of your next practice session.

4. Review Your Matches Like a Pro

If you can record your games, do it. Watching a replay gives you the rare benefit of a third-person view on your own play—free of adrenaline and tunnel vision.

• Uncover Subtle Misplays: Some of the most costly errors are the smallest. Only by reviewing footage can you catch the plays you missed.

• Study Opponent Patterns: Observing your opponent can reveal cues you may have overlooked, arming you with insights for future games.

Replaying matches gives you a detached perspective, letting you refine your instincts and build awareness with every replayed move.

5. Seek Outside Perspectives

Most players don’t bother with constructive feedback, but an outside viewpoint is one of the most valuable tools in post-game analysis. Discussing the match with a friend, teammate, or even your opponent introduces insights you’ll miss on your own.

• Ask Direct Questions:  Frame your feedback requests around specific situations—”When I played X move, did it feel predictable?” or “Could you see an alternate path I didn’t?” Detailed feedback forces you to confront your choices critically and learn from an external perspective.

The more perspectives you include, the more you sharpen your understanding. Outside feedback helps find holes in your own gameplay, some of which may be a recurring occurrence.

The Bottom Line: Play to Learn, Not Just to Win

The difference between a good player and a great one lies in relentlessly pursuing the best move—even when it isn’t obvious. If you’re logging games and moving on, you’re missing an entire dimension of growth.

Post-game analysis goes beyond catching mistakes; it’s about refining each decision to approach the highest standard of play. Challenge results-based thinking, embrace constructive feedback, and set concrete goals. When it’s time for the big tournament, you’ll arrive with more than just a deck—you’ll bring the rigor and confidence of a player who relentlessly pursues the best moves, every single time.

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